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Analysis and prediction of the import and export situation of China's machine to 2012-01-17

According to the prediction of the International Monetary Fund, the GDP of developed economies will increase by about 2.4% and that of developing countries by about 6.6% in 2011. It is expected that the demand of the international market will increase, especially the continuous expansion of economic and technological cooperation between China and emerging economies and developing countries, the establishment of free trade zones with ASEAN 6 countries, and the signing of free trade agreements with Chile, Peru, Singapore and other countries Trade Zone agreement, etc. Therefore, the international economic environment in 2011 is conducive to the steady and rapid development of foreign trade in China's machine tool industry.

However, due to the insufficient power of world economic recovery, many deep-seated contradictions and problems to be solved, coupled with the impact of European sovereign debt crisis, the U.S. economic recovery is weak, and the uncertainty of economic development increases. At the same time, the supply and demand of resource-based products in the international market are still relatively tight, some raw materials prices may rise, as well as the expectation of RMB exchange rate appreciation and the increase of labor cost in China, which will cause the increase of export cost of machine tools and tools. We need to pay special attention to the fact that in the economic downturn, trade protectionism will continue to occur. All of these will affect the export expansion of China's machine tool industry.

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 17th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China pointed out in the main objectives of economic and social development of the 12th Five year plan that "steady and rapid economic development", "significant progress has been made in the strategic adjustment of economic structure" and "generally rapid growth of urban and rural residents' income". The machine tool industry is faced with the important task of adjusting the economic structure and changing the development mode. We should vigorously develop new strategic industries, research and develop high-grade CNC machine tools and their functional parts, complete automatic production lines, intelligent control systems, etc. With the adjustment of industrial structure and the gradual optimization of product structure, the import and export structure of machine tools and tools will also change.

According to the above analysis, it is expected that the import and export of machine tool industry will continue to grow in 2011, and the structure of import and export products will be improved. In terms of import, the proportion of heavy-duty machine tools and expensive machine tools may continue to decline, and the import of key parts needed by domestic enterprises to develop high-end machine tools and heavy-duty machine tools will increase.

In terms of export, in addition to a small number of high-grade and heavy-duty machine tools that may continue to make breakthroughs and enter the international market, medium and low-grade CNC machine tools, high-quality ordinary machine tools that meet the needs of users, as well as metal cutting tools and abrasives, forging and stamping tools, machine tool accessories, etc., will still be welcomed by the international market and users.

The development of the machine tool industry mainly depends on the fixed assets of the mechanical industry (the required equipment is mainly machine tools) and the export. It is predicted that the growth rate of fixed assets of China's machinery industry in 2011 will not increase by about 40% in the previous years (from January to September 2010, fixed assets of machinery industry reached 1.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 30.35% year-on-year). Therefore, expanding exports has become an important aspect of promoting the development of the industry. Therefore, it is suggested to adjust and optimize the structure of export products to adapt to the changes of international market demand, explore potential markets, pay attention to the impact of European sovereign debt crisis and quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States, actively respond to the impact of imported machine tools from Taiwan, improve competitiveness, pay attention to the analysis of imported equipment, select products with large import volume for research and development, avoid exchange rate risk, and promote Settlement in RMB.

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